OA
美国农业部预测：今年将生产创纪录的大豆作物
2018-08-15 14:36:38
根据美国农业部国家农业统计局（NASS）2018年8月10日发布的作物产量报告，美国农民今年将生产出创纪录的大豆作物。根据预测，大豆产量将达到创纪录的45.9亿蒲式耳，同比上升4%；玉米则将比去年略有减产，为146亿蒲式耳。
预测大豆收割面积为8890万英亩，全美种植面积估计为8960万英亩，与去年相比下降1％，与6月份的预估持平。预计大豆单产平均每英亩产量为51.6蒲式耳，比去年增加2.5蒲式耳。预计阿拉巴马州，伊利诺伊州，印第安纳州，肯塔基州，密西西比州，内布拉斯加州，俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州将达到创纪录的大豆产量。
2、玉米
玉米平均产量预计为每英亩178.4蒲式耳，比去年增加1.8蒲式耳。如果能实现这一产量，将是美国有记录以来的最高亩产量。NASS预测阿拉巴马州，伊利诺伊州，内布拉斯加州，俄亥俄州，南达科他州和田纳西州的亩产量创历史新高。玉米种植面积为8910万，与NASS的6月预估相比保持不变，但比2017年下降1％。截至7月29日，今年玉米产量的72％状况报告良好或优异，比去年同期高出11个百分点。
3、小麦
小麦产量预计为18.8亿蒲式耳，比2017年增长8％。预计今年将生产11.9亿蒲式耳冬小麦，比去年下降6％。杜伦麦小麦产量预计为7340万蒲式耳，比去年增加34％。所有其他春小麦产量预计为6.14亿蒲式耳，比2017年增长48％。根据8月1日的情况，美国所有小麦产量预计为每英亩47.4蒲式耳，比去年增加1.1蒲式耳。
4、棉花
报告还包括美国棉花产量的首次预测。NASS预测总棉花产量为1,920万 / 480磅包，比去年下降8％。预计平均产量为每英亩收获911磅，比去年增加6磅。
NASS为本报告采访了全国约21,600名农户。该机构还对主要生产州的玉米，大豆，小麦和棉花进行了实地和实验室测量，通常包含了美国总产量的75％左右。NASS还准备进行9月的农业调查，该调查将重点关注小麦，大麦，燕麦和黑麦种植户。该调查将在9月的前两周进行。
附：英文原文
USDA Forecasts Record High Corn Yield and Soybean Production for 2018
WASHINGTON, August 10, 2018 – U.S. farmers are expected to produce a record-high soybean crop this year, according to the Crop Production report issued today by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Up 4 percent from 2017, soybean production is forecast at record high 4.59 billion bushels, while corn growers are expected to decrease their production slightly from last year, forecast at 14.6 billion bushels.
Down 1 percent from last year, area for soybean harvest is forecast at 88.9 million acres with planted area for the nation estimated at 89.6 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate. Soybean yields are expected to average 51.6 bushels per acre, up 2.5 bushels from last year. Record soybean yields are expected in Alabama, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Average corn yield is forecast at 178.4 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels from last year. If realized, this will be the highest yield on record for the United States. NASS forecasts record-high yields in Alabama, Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Tennessee. Acres planted to corn, at 89.1 million, remain unchanged from NASS’ June estimate but down 1 percent from 2017. As of July 29, 72 percent of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 11 percentage points above the same time last year.
Wheat production is forecast at 1.88 billion bushels, up 8 percent from 2017. Growers are expected to produce 1.19 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, down 6 percent from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 73.4 million bushels, up 34 percent from last year. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 614 million bushels, up 48 percent from 2017. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 1.1 bushels from last year.
Today’s report also included the first production forecast for U.S. cotton. NASS forecasts all cotton production at 19.2 million 480-pound bales, down 8 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 911 pounds per harvested acre, up 6 pounds from last year.
NASS interviewed approximately 21,600 producers across the country in preparation for this report. The agency also conducted field and lab measurements on corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton in the major producing states, which usually account for about 75 percent of the U.S. production. NASS is also gearing up to conduct its September Agricultural Survey, which will focus on wheat, barley, oats and rye growers. That survey will take place during the first two weeks of September.
（来源：USDA网站 编译：国科农研院）